Oceanography Seminar Series
Richard Karsten
Acadia University
Title:
"Modelling Fish Trajectories through Minas Passage"
(Abstract to follow at end of message)
Time:
March 31, 2026 - 11:45 AM Atlantic Time (Canada)
Location:
Room C244
Life Sciences Centre, Common Area
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Meeting ID: 886 1394 6300
Passcode: 961528
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Upcoming Seminars:
April 14th - Alireza Zabihihesari / Colin Sonnichsen, Engineering, 91短视频
April 21st - Alexandre Normandeau, NRCan
April 28th - Yanxu Chen, Physics, 91短视频
Abstract:
The Minas Passage, the passage that connects Minas Basin to the Bay of Fundy is the best location for commercial scale tidal energy development in Canada. But tidal energy in the Minas Passage can only proceed if we can accurately predict the impact of tidal turbines on protected fish species, including Atlantic salmon and white shark. In this presentation, we will discuss recent work using field observations and numerical simulations to predict migrating salmon smolt trajectory through Minas Passage and thus calculate the probability that the smolts might encounter a tidal turbine.
First, we will review examining field data from Minas Passage including satellite-tracks of surface drifters and telemetry data of tagged fish. The drifter data illustrates the chaotic behaviour of the flow through the passage, as the drifters jump between several quasi-stable, semi-periodic cycles. The telemetry data, though much more limited, has been used to calculate the probability that a migrating salmon smolt might encounter a tidal turbine, but this estimate comes with a high level of uncertainty.
Next, we will present the results of mathematical models that aim to reduce this uncertainty. First, we use simple semi-Lagrange particle tracking to model the movement of drifters through Minas Passage. The model calibrations/validation against the known trajectories of surface drifters, highlighting the difficulty of validation of trajectories in a chaotic system.
Second, change the model an agent-based model for fish, where the individual fish can respond to their environment by swimming. Observing fish behaviour in fast flowing currents is very difficult. So, in a first attempt, we only include the long-time average swim behavior, for example the preference of salmon smolts swim to the west and migrate out to the Atlantic Ocean, and determine how well the results agree with the telemetry data. We will also discuss plans to adapt the approach to calculating of the likelihood of a fish encountering an operating tidal turbine will be harmed by the turbine.
Time